UFC 84 Preview, Betting Lines And Picks

UFC 84: Ill Will is only a day away! Weigh-ins for the event will be streamed live via UFC.com at 7PM ET/4PM PT.

If you’re the gambling type, we recommend visiting BetUS to place your bets. They are currently offering $60 if sign up for an account and deposit $100!

The Picks

I didn’t fare so well in my picks for UFC 83, so I’m looking to redeem myself this time around.

“-” = favorite “+” = underdog

With a line of -150 & +150, you would win $50 for every $100 if you bet on the favorite, and he won. You would win $150 for every $100 if you bet on the underdog, and he won.

BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk

Current BetUS Line: Penn -250 Sherk +185

A few weeks ago I was fairly undecided on this one, but as the event gets closer, I’m feeling stronger and stronger about BJ Penn. His talent alone is incredible, and he seems to be taking the sport much more seriously now. Assuming he worked as hard as he said he did, I don’t see BJ losing this fight. I see it going similarly to Penn’s last fight against Joe Stevenson. Penn will dominate Sherk in the stand-up, and eventually find his way on top of him. Penn really wants to beat Sean up, so I think we’ll Penn trying to cut Sherk open with elbows, the same way he did against Stevenson. Penn’s talent and skills will eventually lead him to take Sherk’s back and give Sherk the first submission loss of his career.

John Anik, of ESPN, did raise an important question in yesterday’s episode of ‘MMA Live’ that everyone seems to be overlooking—what if Sherk did take steroids? Would his performance level be the same? Let’s assume Sean Sherk did take steroids, as evidenced by the positive test, and he didn’t take them this time. In theory, Sherk should be weaker, slower, and less explosive than we have seen him in the past. We may not see the same Sean Sherk as we’re accustomed to.

Taking Penn down repeatedly and grinding out a lay-n-pray decision is the only way I see Sherk winning this one, but it’s not going to make it that far.

Penn by submission in round 2.

If you’re feeling Sherk in this match, he is a good underdog bet. The odds on Penn aren’t worth the risk.

Wanderlei Silva vs. Keith Jardine

Wandy -175 Jardine +135

Oh this one makes me nervous. I really don’t want to see Wandy drop another one, but Jardine poses a real threat here. I’m going to do my best to break this down objectively.

Although Wandy has lost his last three, I want to take a quick look at them. Cro Cop has the perfect style to beat Wandy—precision striking. He beat Wandy up in that fight with exactly that, not to mention Wandy really shouldn’t have been fighting in that weight class. In the Henderson fight, Wandy was apparently very ill, and still put up a good fight. Even though he lost to Liddell, he did not look bad in that fight. Let’s not forget he took Chuck’s best shots and kept swinging. It was his first appearance in the modern-day UFC, so jitters may have played part as well. Chuck left that fight a little beat up as well. Wandy fought well, but wasn’t “The Axe Murderer.” My point is, are we writing Wandy off a little too soon?

This fight is going to be about heart. Does Wanderlei still have that heart of champion to will him to victory? Will we see “The Axe Murderer” or the remnants of a modern-day legend?

Beyond the intangibles, it’s pretty simple. If Jardine can stay on the outside and stick to his game plan of peppering Wandy with strikes and leg kicks, Jardine will win a decision. If Wandy can get inside and unleash his vicious Muay Thai knees and wild punches, he’s going to put Jardine on the mat early.

I can’t pick against him.

Silva by TKO in round 2.

If you like Jardine in this fight, and a lot of people do, Jardine is a good bet at the underdog spot.

Tito vs Machida

Machida -210 Tito +160

Tito’s desire to stick in Dana White’s face is his biggest motivator in this fight. He says he’s healthy and is training like he used to when he was the champ. But he’s facing a stud in Machida. Machida is well-rounded. On paper, Machida should win this one fairly easy. However, will the real storyline behind this fight bring out the old Tito we haven’t seen in years? I don’t know, but I’m not even sure that is enough.

Either way, I hope they let Tito have the mic afterwards.

Machida by decision.

I recommend staying away from this one unless you think Tito can pull out the victory.

Wilson Gouveia vs Goran Reljic

No one is giving Reljic a chance in this fight, neither am I. His undefeated record consists of names no one’s ever heard. Gouveia should run right through him in this fight that should be relegated to the prelims in place of Sokoudjou and Nakamura.

Gouveia by TKO in round 1.