UFC 85 Preview, Odds & Picks

UFC 85: Bedlam is only a day away. The event will be shown live on pay-per-view at 3PM ET tomorrow, June 7 and replayed at 10PM ET on tape delay.

For you gamblers out there, we recommend visiting BetUS to place your bets. They are currently offering $60 if sign up for an account and deposit $100!

The Fights

Minus (-) = favorite | Plus (+) = underdog

With a line of -150 & +150, you would have to wager $150 to win $100 if you bet on the favorite and he won. You would win $150 for every $100 if you bet on the underdog, and he won.

If that’s a little confusing or you’re not planning on betting in $100 increments, BETUS has a new MMA betting calculator I highly recommend to make it easy for you to figure out how much you would win.

Matt Hughes (-220) vs Thiago Alves (+170)

Ever since GSP dominated Matt Hughes at UFC 79, the buzz has been that Hughes is done, he doesn’t have “it” anymore, and he should retire. I don’t buy it. The only two people that have beaten Matt Hughes in the past seven years has been GSP and BJ Penn. Sure, GSP made Hughes look like an amateur at UFC 79, but he does that to everybody. He makes everyone look like they should retire. I’m not convinced Matt Hughes doesn’t have it anymore. His pride and ego are too big to let Alves come in and embarrass him. I just don’t see it happening.

Hughes by TKO (ground and pound) in round two.

A lot of people feel Alves has a good chance in this fight. If you’re one of those people, the odds are on your side.

Michael Bisping (-350) vs. Jason Day (+250)

Bisping looked stellar in his first outing at middleweight against Charles McCarthy, but so did Jason Day in his Octagon debut with dominant victory over Alan Belcher at UFC 83. Day is a solid fighter, so I believe there’s a good chance at an upset here. Bisping is a solid too, but I’ve never thought he was championship caliber, and especially not with Anderson Silva holding the title. Day really isn’t either, but he has some knockout power that he just might catch Bisping with.

Bisping looked sharp and has the better skills, but I’m going against the grain on this one and picking the upset.

Day by TKO in round two.

Day is just too dangerous to put money down on Bisping with these odds. The risk just isn’t worth the reward. I suggest laying something down on Day here if you’re betting on this fight.

Marcus Davis (-105) vs. Mike Swick (-125)

This should be an explosive fight that may just nab fight of the night honors. Davis has been on an absolute tear in the UFC going 6-0 since losing to Melvin Guillard in the TUF 2 Finale. Swick on the other hand, looked sluggish, slow and nothing like his former self in his move down to welterweight against Josh Burkman. Swick has promised he will deliver a more exciting performance this time around, but I wonder if he will too concentrated on pleasing the audience rather than winning. With Davis being so explosive and having all the momentum behind, I can’t justify picking against him, at least not with Swick as his opponent.

Davis by decision.

The odds are pretty close to even on this one. Davis is probably worth putting a small amount on. If you think the Swick of old will show up, it wouldn’t be the worst bet ever made

Nate Marquardt (-170) vs. Thales Leites (+140)

Marquardt just has too many tools and too much power to lose this fight. Leites is a good fighter, but Marquardt should overwhelm him.

Marquardt by decision

Brandon Vera (-200) vs Fabricio Werdum (+160)

A battle of the heavyweight contenders. The winner should go on to get the next title shot against the winner of Nogueira/Mir (I’m going to go ahead and call Big Nog on that one). Unfortunately for Vera or Werdum, they’re going to have to wait until 2009 for that shot, because another title will be put on hold for an extended period of time for TUF.

This is the battle of the striker (Vera) vs the Jiu-Jitsu (Werdum) specialist. Werdum impressively handled Gonzaga in their last outing, while Vera looked very lackluster in a decision loss to Sylvia. That said, Vera is a tough opponent for Werdum. He’s going to have a hard time getting Vera to ground and keeping him there long enough to pull out a submission. Werdum has been training with Chute Boxe—former home of Brazilian assassins Wanderlei Silva and Shogun Rua—so his striking should be improving, although its unlikely it will be able to match Vera’s Muay Thai skills. I definitely think Werdum can do enough to pull out the victory, but the edge has to go to Vera.

Vera by decision.

Probably not worth laying anything down on Vera at those odds, but Werdum isn’t a bad choice with a small bet