MMAConvert.com

UFC Ultimate Fight Night 14: Silva vs Irvin will take place tomorrow, July 19, at 9PM ET/6PM PT and will air live on Spike TV. It will feature the debut of UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva and heavyweight contender Brandon Vera at light heavyweight.

The Fights

Minus (-) = favorite | Plus (+) = underdog

With a line of -150 & +150, you would have to wager $150 to win $100 if you’re picking the favorite. You would win $150 for every $100 if you bet on the underdog assuming he won.

If that has you baffled or you don’t feel like doing the math, BetUS has a new MMA betting calculator that I highly recommend you use so you don’t have to pull out that old dusty TI-2000 hiding in your drawer.

Anderson Silva (-500) vs. James Irvin (+350)

With all the talk of the UFC’s three most elite fighters—Penn, GSP, and Silva—moving up (and down) in weight classes, one of them is actually coming to fruition. Leaving behind a wake of crushed opponents at 185lbs, Anderson Silva will try his hand at the big boys in the light heavyweight division. Should his run of UFC domination continue? It should, but James Irvin is not an opponent to look past.

Known as having the worst luck in all of MMA, Irvin is banking on that luck changing and sending the middleweight champ back down to the 185lbs division. They’re both high-level Muay Thai strikers, with Irvin having the edge in power and Silva the edge in technique. Irvin is counting on being able to withstand Silva’s assault and land a few power shots. He’s certainly capable but Anderson Silva is also a very smart fighter who may try to get this to the ground—where he is clearly dominant in this matchup—if he gets in trouble. There’s a lot more ways for Anderson to win this fight than there is for Irvin, but don’t be surprised if Irvin pulls out the upset.

I have a gut feeling Irvin is going to land a shot that sends Silva back down the pound-for-pound rankings, but my gut hasn’t quite led me in the right direction in a few of my past upset picks. The smart pick is Anderson. I’m going to be smart this time.

Silva by TKO in round one

The line on Anderson is pretty steep considering the chance for an upset. I couldn’t lay down any cash at -500. Irvin might not be bad for a small bet if you’re getting that same gut feeling I am.

Brandon Vera (-550) vs Reese Andy (+400)

Brandon Vera moves down to light heavyweight while Reese Andy is coming in from the IFL as the UFC’s fifth choice to fight Vera. Andy isn’t very well known, and understandably so since he came from the IFL, which no one watched.

Andy, a solid wrestler in the 205lbs class, primarily wins his fights with ground control, with two of his last three fights going to decision. Vera, while known for his striking, has an underrated ground game and should be able to keep Andy from controlling him to a boring decision.

It’s hard to pick the unproven Andy against a top heavyweight, who should really be a much better fighter at the weight class this fight will be contested at—light heavyweight.

Vera by TKO in round one

Once again the lines really aren’t doing you any favors here. I don’t think its worth throwing money away on Andy here, but this is MMA and anything can happen. I would stay away from this one.

Frank Edgar (-140) vs Hermes Franca (+110)

Hermes Franca is coming off a 12 month steroid suspension against a solid lightweight, Frank Edgar, that holds wins over Tyson Griffin, Mark Bocek, and Spencer Fisher. Edgar is a great wrestler that keeps a tremendous pace throughout the fight, while Franca will come in with the superior BJJ and striking skills. It’s easy to point to the Sherk/Franca fight here for comparison, but Edgar is no Sherk. He just doesn’t have the size and explosiveness that Sherk has.

The big question here is if Franca can keep up with Edgar’s pace without gassing, especially coming off a long layoff. I’ve heard Hermes say he’s been very focused on his cardio this past year, so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Franca by submission in round two

Franca really should be the favorite here, but likely isn’t because of the long layoff, which is great for you, because Franca is a great value here as the underdog.

Cain Velasquez vs Jake O’Brien

An unproven Cain Velasquez has two tons of hype behind him, while Jake O’Brien has proved he’s a solid, albeit boring, competitor in the UFC. I haven’t seen anything yet to make me believe Cain is the second coming of Fedor, but he does have a very strong wrestling base and should be able to keep O’Brien from lay-and-praying him to a decision.

Cain Velasquez by TKO in round two

Jesse Taylor vs C.B. Dollaway

The TUF 7 final that was supposed to happen until Amir shocked everyone and Jesse kicked out a limo window. If you’ve watched the show, you know Jesse Taylor is a big, strong and powerful fighter. His game plan is predictable. He wants to take you down and pound on you. Dollaway, the early favorite to win the show, has a much more diverse skill set than Taylor. C.B. has solid collegiate wrestling background that should be enough to keep Taylor from doing what he did to everyone else on the show.

I just see Taylor as too one-dimensional in this fight.

Dollaway by TKO in round two

Anthony Johnson (-350) vs Kevin Burns (+250)

If you caught Anthony Johnson’s destruction of TUF 6 finalist Tommy Speer, you know Johnson’s striking skills are no joke. Kevin Burns is a relatively unknown that came out of nowhere on short notice to submit BJJ Black Belt Roan Carneiro at UFC 85. Not much else is known about Burns so its hard to say what else, if anything, he brings to the table. Johnson is going to be too careful to let himself get caught in a submission like Carneiro did. His fists should find Burns face to put him out.

Johnson by KO in round one

If you’re laying anything down on this fight, I think you have to put it on Johnson, but Burns could come out of nowhere again and slap on a submission which Johnson has proved he is susceptible to in the past.

Preliminary Card

Tim Creduer vs. Cale Yarbrough – Credeur by submission in round two

Brad Blackburn (-135) vs. James Giboo (+105) – Blackburn by TKO in round two

Rory Markham vs Brodie Farber – Markham by TKO in round one

Johnny Rees vs Nate Loughran – Loughran by decision

Shannon Gugherty vs Dale Hartt – Gugherty by decision