UFC 88 “Breakthrough” Preview, Picks And Betting Lines
UFC 88 “Breakthrough” will take place tomorrow, September 6, at 10PM ET/7PM PT at the Phillips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia and will air live on pay-per-view. The weigh-ins will be held today at 4PM ET and will stream live from UFC.com.
The Fights
Minus (-) = favorite | Plus (+) = underdog
With a line of -150 & +150, you would have to wager $150 to win $100 if you’re picking the favorite. You would win $150 for every $100 if you bet on the underdog assuming he won.
If that has you baffled or you don’t feel like doing the math, BetUS has a MMA betting calculator that I highly recommend you use so you don’t have to pull out that old dusty TI-2000 hiding in your drawer.
Our bet recommendations will appear in italics. It is important to note that you should only take these as recommendations and nothing more. Anything and everything will happen in MMA, so no bet is 100% guaranteed. Bet wisely and have fun.
Chuck Liddell (-260) vs. Rashad Evans (+200)
Could there be a more compelling matchup than Liddell vs. Evans on this card?
Ok, actually there’s nine other fights on this card that are more compelling. It really doesn’t take an expert to figure out how this fight is gonna go.
Liddell has made his living knocking out wrestlers throughout his career. And what is Rashad Evans? He’s a wrestler. As much as some would like you to believe Evans has the striking skills to stand and trade with Liddell and come out on top, it’s not going to happen. Evans may try, but once he gets hit, he’s gonna go for the takedown, and we all know what happens when someone tries to take Chuck down. Liddell stuffs them with his sprawl and on the rare occasion he does get put on his ass, he pops right back up. Evans is going to have to stand with Chuck and he’s eventually going to get caught. It’s that simple.
There’s only two scenarios where I can remotely see Evans winning this fight. One, Liddell reinjures his hamstring. Two, Greg Jackson puts Rashad on the Jardine gameplan. If Rashad can use his speed to get in and out and make it a points fight, he may be able to squeak out a decision. Of course, that assumes Evans is on the same level as Jardine on the feet, which he isn’t.
If this fight goes down any other way I will be shocked.
Liddell by TKO (Strikes)
You have to with Liddell on this one. I see Liddell winning this fight nine times out of ten, and that’s being generous to Rashad.
Rich Franklin (-230) vs Matt Hamill (+180)
Rich Franklin makes his move back to light heavyweight. It’s unfortunate that Franklin hasn’t been able to beat Anderson Silva because he really is an elite level fighter, and he’s fallen by the wayside since Silva completely put him out of the middleweight title picture. Because of that, I do believe this is the right move for Franklin at this point in his career. It gives him a goal again, but at the same time, he has a long hard road to get there.
I think Matt Hamill has a decent chance to pull out the victory. He’s widened his skill set since we saw him on TUF. I think he’s shown tremendous improvement in each fight since then. He still has a ways to go, but he is a tough light heavyweight with a ton of heart, and could pose problems for Franklin in his first back at 205lbs. Hamill brings a strong wrestling base and has decent power in his hands, but the question is his cardio. We’ve seen him slow down before as the fight goes on, and that could be the deciding factor.
Honestly, I think Franklin is just too skilled and experienced for Hamill at this point in time. Hamill could control the fight early, but once he runs out of gas, Franklin should be able to take the fight over and pull out the decision.
Franklin by decision
I think Franklin’s the right play here, but I won’t blame you if you put a little something on Hamill
Karo Parisyan (-260) vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+200)
More UFC 88 presser photos at CombatLifestyle.com
[UPDATE 9/5/08 3:25PM ET] - This fight has been canceled due to Karo Parisyan reportedly suffering a last-minute back injury.
It’s a rare battle of two Judokas inside the Octagon. Usually when you have two fighters who are highly skilled in the same discipline they end up canceling each other out. Unless, of course, it’s striking in which case one guy usually gets knocked out, but that’s not the case here.
This is a tough one to call, but what you can’t ignore is that one guy is a finisher and the other is not. Karo has been a decision machine for quite awhile now. In fact, it’s been well over two years since he finished a fight, with the last one coming in April of 2006 against Nick Thompson. In his last 10 fights, he’s racked up seven decision wins. Yoshida, on the other hand, has only had one of his 10 wins go to decision. In that scenario, the winner usually ends up being the guy who finishes fights. The only problem with that theory though is that Karo has faced better competition in his career than Yoshida has.
Like I said, tough one to call, but I like Yoshida in this one.
Yoshida by TKO (Strikes)
It really seems like oddsmakers are setting this line because of Karo’s name recognition, which in turn gives you a great opportunity to make some money. I’d go with Yoshida.
Dan Henderson (-200) vs Rousimar Palhares (+160)
It’s do or die time for Henderson. He’s 0-2 since his return to the Octagon, and it’s about time he gets a win. He damn sure needs it. I don’t necessarily think the UFC will cut him if he doesn’t win this fight, but he’s not going to be in a good position if he loses. No one wants to see Hendo go from holding two PRIDE titles simultaneously to fighting in the prelims a year later.
This isn’t a gimme for Hendo either. Historically, he’s had a tough time with BJJ experts, and that’s exactly what Palhares is. Hendo normally isn’t one to get submitted, but if he isn’t careful, he could definitely get caught in one. That said, I think Hendo digs down deep and and lays a beating on Palhares tomorrow night. We all know how he loves to stand and bang, and that’s exactly what he’s going to have to do to win this fight. If he can use his wrestling to keep the fight standing, I think he finally catches someone again with that big right hand of his.
Dan Henderson by Knockout
This is a tough one to call when its very possible Palhares could catch Hendo in a submission at any point. As Palhares showed against Salavery, it can happen very quick. That said, I’d put my money on Hendo. He may be 0-2 for the last year, but let’s not forget who he lost to.
Nate Marquardt (-150) vs Martin Kampmann (+100)
It’s time for Nate Marquardt to redeem himself. The Thales Leites fight was ugly. I’m not sure what Marquardt was thinking with all the illegal blows, but he should have won that fight, as he should this one. Kampmann has good striking and submissions, but Marquardt is relentless and powerful, and is going to control this fight. I see Marquardt taking a decision as long as he remembers it’s 2008 and MMA has rules.
Marquardt by decision
Marquardt looks good at this line
Preliminary Card
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Thiago Tavares – Pellegrino by decision
Mike Patt vs. Tim Boetsch – Boetsch by TKO
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Matt Brown – Kim by TKO
Roan Carneiro vs. Ryo Chonan – Chonan by decision
Jason MacDonald vs. Jason Lambert – MacDonald by TKO
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