EliteXC ‘Heat’ Preview, Picks, And Betting Lines
EliteXC “Heat” will take place tomorrow, October 4, at 9PM ET at the BankAtlantic Center in Fort Lauderdale, Florida and will air live (east coast) on CBS. The weigh-ins will be held today at 4PM ET at the BankAtlantic Center.
The Fights
Minus (-) = favorite | Plus (+) = underdog
With a line of -150 & +150, you would have to wager $150 to win $100 if you’re picking the favorite. You would win $150 for every $100 if you bet on the underdog assuming he won.
Our bet recommendations will appear in italics. It is important to note that you should only take these as recommendations and nothing more. Anything and everything will happen in MMA, so no bet is 100% guaranteed. Bet wisely and have fun.
Kimbo Slice (-350) vs. Ken Shamrock (+250)
This fight is two things. One, it’s the fight most likely to made fun of in 2008. Two, it’s arguably the most important fight EliteXC has ever put on. What does that say?
Yeah, exactly.
This fight is here for two reasons. To draw big ratings and legitimize Kimbo Slice in the eyes of the casual fan. Of course, we all know a Kimbo KO doesn’t prove anything against the way past his prime legend who is seemingly susceptible to being knocked out by a stiff breeze. However, if the fight does end up on the ground, and Kimbo thrives, that just might mean something.
Fact of the matter is, no one, and I mean no one, gave James Thompson a chance to last past the first minute. Kimbo was supposed to take advantage of Thompson’s fragile chin and put him away, right away. It didn’t work out like that though, and the next thing we know Kimbo was on his back. It wasn’t pretty, and he’s obviously “just a baby” in the ground game. He’s says that’s changed though. He says he can hang on the ground with Shamrock if he has to. We’ll see, it’s only been four months, but if he can flourish against a man with years upon years of more ground experience, perhaps he’ll earn a little “street cred” from the hardcore fan base.
Who am I kidding though? The problem is as experienced as Shamrock is, he doesn’t last long enough anymore to get the fight where it needs to go. He and his trainers have made outlandish comments about Ken being capable of standing with Kimbo and “dominating.” I seriously hope that was all an act, but honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least bit if it wasn’t.
If Ken wants to survive, he absolutely has to get Kimbo to the ground and keep him there. Everyone is pointing to leglocks as his chance to pull out the upset, but do you know when the last time Ken won a fight with any form of a leglock? It was 12 years ago. 1996. UFC 8. That’s not a typo. It’s been a long time, so while Kimbo may be an easy target, don’t be surprised if Ken wins by a submission above the waist.
All that said, look for Kimbo to knock Ken silly in round one. But, you already knew that.
Kimbo by KO in Round One
I’m either about to give you the best betting advice or the worst so take it for what it’s worth, but this is what I would do. The underdogs in this event are big underdogs for a reason. They aren’t supposed to win, and they probably won’t. For the most part, EliteXC has put together fairly significant mismatches for these CBS cards, and if you look at the past two there haven’t been any upsets with perhaps the exception of Cyborg over Bazsler (I forget who was the favorite in that one). Laying down 3.5u to 6u on each fight to win 1u is a lot to ask if you ask me, so I’d go with a parlay. I’d do all six fights BetUS is offering lines on, which would put the payout around +250. I feel strongly that all the favorites are going to win, but if you don’t and think a particular fighter is going to pull off the upset, leave them out of it and make a straight bet on that fight. It’s a gamble, but dammit, if you’re gonna do it, do it right! Good luck!
Jake Shields (-600) vs Paul Daley (+450)
Jake Shields has to be one of the hardest fighters for EliteXC to find opponents for. Everyone at his level in the welterweight division is controlled by Zuffa, so finding him legitimate challengers is, well, a challenge. Lucky for us, EliteXC got Paul Daley to cross the pond and give Shields respectable opposition. Daley shouldn’t be taken lightly here and is very capable of putting Jake’s lights out on the feet if he isn’t careful. Shields is a smart fighter though, and I would expect him to get Daley to the ground ASAP. From there, Shields, one of the top submission grapplers in his weight class, should be able to secure a submission for the victory.
Shields by Submission in Round One
Andrei Arlovski (-500) vs Roy Nelson (+350)
More EliteXC presser photos at CombatLifestyle.com
I have to say, it’s pretty weird seeing a fight like this on a EliteXC/CBS event. A legitimate heavyweight fight with an actual real life top ten heavyweight. Get out of here! Just doesn’t seem right, does it?
Definitely not, but the change is accepted with open arms. Arlovski looked incredible in July against Ben Rothwell, so hopefully we’ll see more of the same against Roy Nelson. Nelson is a tough fighter with the largest potbelly you’ll see on primetime network television outside of The Biggest Loser. Unlike the contestants on that show though, Nelson’s proud of the Goodyear he carries around his waist, and brings decent stand-up skills and solid wrestling and ground n’ pound with it.
Nelson is going to have to put Arlovski on his back and hit him in the mouth if he wants to win this fight, but ultimately, Arlovski’s athleticism and superior striking is going to get the best of “Big Country.”
Arlovski by TKO in Round Two
Gina Carano (-600) vs Kelly Kobald (+450)
Kelly Kobald comes into this fight with a lot more MMA fights under her belt than Gina does. She’s a well rounded fighter who’s fought some of the best female MMA has to offer. That said, I’m expecting Gina to beat this girl up. Gina is the superior striker, so as long as she can stay on her feet, her Muay Thai should make it an early night for the girl EliteXC has absolutely no intention of putting any promotional push behind.
Gina Carano by TKO in Round Two
Murilo ‘Ninja’ Rua (-220) vs Benji Radach (+175)
More EliteXC presser photos at CombatLifestyle.com
This is Ninja’s fight to lose. He has the better ground and Jiu-Jitsu game with solid Muay Thai. Benji Radach hits hard and if he catches Rua with a shot, its going to be game over. If Rua’s smart, he’ll avoid those shots and get Radach to ground early. Benji isn’t easy to submit, so Rua will probably need to work the gn’p. Of course, we may see Ninja choose to stand with him as he did with Lawler. Either way, Ninja should be able to avoid Radach’s power strikes and eventually put him away.
Ninja by TKO in Round Two
Preliminary Card
Cristiane Cyborg (-600) vs. Yoko Takahashi (+450) – Cyborg by TKO in Round Two
Edson Berto vs. Connor Heun – Berto by TKO in Round One
Mikey Gomez vs. Lorenzo Borgomeo – Borgomeo by Decision
Seth Petruzelli vs. Aaron Rosa – Petruzelli by Decision
Jorge Bouchat vs. Nicolae Cury – Cury by Decision
David Gomez vs. Brett Jackowski – Jackowski by Decision
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