Written by Robert K
No matter what the media or fans’ perceptions of the quality of a fighter is, the odds are the ultimate reality check. And hence, there is no better way to judge the surprise of an upset than the betting lines.
Take Kimbo’s loss for example. I couldn’t help but smile when one of the CBS commentators proclaimed his shock loss to be the most incredible win in MMA history. Seasoned MMA fans will of course know that is far from the truth. Luckily for hardcore fans, many online bookmakers did in fact post late odds on the fight including Bodog:
Kevin ‘Kimbo Slice’ Ferguson -550
Seth Petruzelli +350
For bettors, Seth Petruzelli’s shock win over Kimbo Slice payed out at +350 at Bodog, +370 at 5Dimes and at +345 at Pinnacle Sports.
The huge number of people betting Ken Shamrock must feel short changed after missing out on a big payday. Kimbo’s lines were as high as -600 and as low as -300 earlier that week due to all the money coming in for Shamrock. About four out of five bets on the fight were on Shamrock.
Petruzelli’s win was one of the bigger upsets in MMA betting history, however not any where near as spectacular as the dramatic post fight commentary suggested. To put things in perspective I have listed the most shocking MMA upsets according to the betting lines below. Two new entries added over the past week have been included.
- Sokoudjou at +1500 win over Minotoro
- Serra at +850 over Georges St. Pierre
- Daiju Takase at +800 over Anderson Silva
- Sergey Golyaev at +751 over Takanori Gomi - new entry
- Lauzon at +610 over Jens Pulver
- Junior Dos Santos at +600 over Werdum - new entry
- Gonzaga at +500 vs. Mirko Cro Cop
- Houston Alexander at +450 over Jardine
So Petruzelli’s win was in fact not “the most incredible victory in the history of mixed martial arts.” Kimbo’s loss may have come as a huge shock to casual fans but in reality it doesn’t even make in the top five. And I wont even go into boxing which had its fair share of amazing upsets including Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson. Vegas odds posted at the time had Douglas as the 42-1 underdog.
Junior Dos Santos and Sergey Golyaev make top MMA upsets list
Two new entries have made the biggest MMA upsets list in the past week.
Junior dos Santos knockout victory over Fabricio Werdum is particularly interesting. He opened at around +600 plus but was bet down to +400 after footage of his pre-fight workout appeared on Dana White’s video blog. And just a week later at Sengoku VI, Sergey Golyaev upset one of the elite lightweights in the world—Takanori Gomi—in a split decision. Pinnacle sports had Golyaev at around +751 making it the fourth biggest MMA upset to date.
Lesnar backed into favoritism
The man who probably holds the greatest number of UFC upsets is Randy Couture. UFC 91 betting odds have been up for a while. Initially, Couture was installed as the slight favorite before public money pushed Lesnar into favoritism. After opening up as the slight underdog, just about every sports book has listed Lesnar at a shorter price than Couture. At exchanges the picture becomes even clearer. European based Betfair has Lesnar at 1.81 vs Couture at 2.08.
This will be the fourth consecutive UFC fight Couture will enter in as the underdog. The fight is not only expected to be the biggest PPV in history but is very likely to become the most bet on MMA fight in history.
A couple of new translations below.
Ricardo Arona: “Minotaur is the best heavyweight”
Original article: http://www.tatame.com.br/2008/10/31/Arona-Minotauro-e-o-melhor-peso-pesado
Having last fought in Pride 33 in Arpil of 2007, Ricardo Arona invited the Tatame team to his home on the beach in Glastonbury, Niteroi, in Rio de Janeiro, and talked to us about his possible return to the ring. In this exclusive interview, he also talks about his rivals of the past - Wanderlei Silva, Mauricio Shogun and Fedor Emelianenko - and his time away from the ring and retirement. He disagrees with UFC decision to create a mini tournament for the heavyweight belt, with Randy Couture, Rodrigo Minotaur, Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir, the fighter believes that it only delays the inevitable of Minotau becoming the undisputed champion.
“I think this mini-GP is unfair. If Minotauro has the interim belt, he should just face Couture to see who takes it, this would be normal. In my opinion Minotauro is the best heavyweight in the world, not because he is my friend but because he has gone it the hard way and passed every possible test that has been put in front of him”
Cro Cop Denies Having Spared With Murder Suspect
Robert Matanic is allegedly a Croatian crime figure with connections to the underworld. I just came across this on a Croatian news site.
In a statement to the Nova TV, Miko Cro Cop denies ever having sparred with Robert Matanic, a suspect in the murder of Ivo Pukanica. Cro Cop states that to the best of his memory he has never seen and does not remember ever having trained or sparred with Robert Matanic.
Cro Cop is coming out publicly with the statement after a Croatian newspaper reported that Robert Matanic had been a sparing partner of Mirko Cro Cop.
“This is an ugly way of connecting my name to the whole story” said Filipovic and added that the he has sparred with hundreds of people but Robert Matanic was not one of them.
“My sport is brutal and aggressive, but I fight with professionals, according to the rules. I dont know why i’ve been put into this uncomfortable situation.” said Filipovic.
The entire statement can be seen on Dnevnik.hr sports section.
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Obliviously there are huge number of MMA fights and i cant collect odds for all of them especially early smaller shows . So this isn’t an exact list but more of a rough guide.