UFC 95 “Sanchez vs Stevenson” will take place tomorrow, February 21, at the O2 Arena in London, England and will air via tape-delay on Spike TV at 9PM ET/PT. The weigh-ins will be held this morning at 11AM ET/8AM PT, and will stream live on UFC.com.
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The Fights
Minus (-) = favorite | Plus (+) = underdog
With a line of -150 & +150, you would have to wager $150 to win $100 if you’re picking the favorite. You would win $150 for every $100 if you bet on the underdog assuming he won.
Good luck!
Diego Sanchez (-350) vs Joe Stevenson (+250)
Mike Moffatt: In a battle of TUF alumni, Diego Sanchez will be in tough during his first foray into the UFC lightweight division. It has been no secret that Sanchez has had to cut a lot of weight prior to this fight and how that will affect him is uncertain at this point. As for Stevenson, he has already made it to the peak of the mountain, only to get knocked off by BJ Penn. Defeating Diego Sanchez on Saturday will be a huge step in moving him back up the ladder in the crowded lightweight division. However, Diego’s relentless pace should prove to be too much for Joe Daddy, as the bigger of the two men should be able to frustrate his opponent. I do however envision this fight going to the judges scorecards. Sanchez via Decision
Zane Blackman: For some reason this fight just seems like major upset potential. Diego cutting 37 lbs combined with how hungry Joe Stevenson is coming off those two losses leads me to believe ‘The Nightmare’ is in for a long night. I am taking Stevenson by Decision.
Mark Dorsey: The only real factor that matters in this fight is how well Sanchez deals with his first cut to lightweight. After starting his career with a number of submission wins, Sanchez has proved his striking prowess with numerous KO and TKO victories. Now that he’s working on his BJJ with one of the best grapplers in the world, Xande Ribeiro, Sanchez is even more of a dangerous all around threat. Expect to see an aggressive Sanchez overwhelm Stevenson and earn a submission victory in the second round.Sanchez by Submission in Round Two
Zak Woods: I am uncomfortable with the fact that Diego Sanchez is cutting a whopping 37 pounds in order to fight at lightweight. A fighter who is making such a dramatic first time weight cut usually doesn’t perform up to snuff in their debut. However Joe Stevenson has struggled against larger fighters. Remember he debuted in the UFC as a welterweight and after a loss to Josh Neer quickly dropped to lightweight. This fight will come down to Sanchez’s work in the gym and the sauna. If the weight loss isn’t too draining he will win a decision victory with dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. Sanchez by Decision
Steve Barry: Whenever I picture this fight in my head I see Diego overwhelming Stevenson, getting his back and sinking in a rear naked choke much like Kenny and BJ did. Sanchez by Submission in Round One
Rory Markham (-110) vs Dan Hardy (-120)
Mike Moffatt: In a middleweight tilt, Dan Hardy and Rory Markham look to establish themselves as fighters to watch in’09. With Hardy being from England, he should be able to use the crowd to his advantage, as they are sure to be behind him. Hardy has never been knocked out in a fight and does have heavy hands himself. Markham has never seen a fight go the distance, and this one should be an exciting match-up. All four of Markham’s losses have been knockouts, and both men should be swinging for the fences come Saturday night. I don’t see this fight lasting past round one and I believe that Hardy will be able to connect with a hard shot. Hardy by TKO in Round One
Zane Blackman: This fight has Fight of the Night potential. Hardy hits hard and can hang with the top welterweights in the world. Markham is an IFL product who had the awesome head kick KO in his first UFC fight. Expect a KO. Hardy by KO in Round Two
Mark Dorsey: Hardy may be relatively unknown in his second fight with the UFC but he brings a vast amount of experience into the Octagon with 26 fights under his belt. Hardy is one of the best prospects since Michael Bisbing to come from England and if he can calm the nerves in front of his hometown crowd on the sport’s biggest stage, he stands a good chance of defeating the durable and heavy-hitting Markham. Markham, a former IFL standout, has power in both of his hands but tends to get into sloppy stand-up exchanges when the action gets heated. If Hardy can avoid Markham’s power punches he will likely get a decision victory. Hardy by Decision
Zak Woods: Both fighters are relative newcomers to the UFC so it seems strange that they are on the televised card, but when you consider that Hardy is U.K. native from Nottingham (I wish his nickname was ‘the Sheriff’) then it makes a lot more sense. Rory Markham is a veteran from the IFL, and for the UFC to pick him up it shows that Joe Silva has confidence in his ability. Markham by TKO in Round Three.
Steve Barry: Both fighters hit hard and one of them will eventually connect. I’m picking Hardy to rise to the occasion in front of the hometown crowd. Hardy by TKO in Round Two
Nate Marquardt (-300) vs Wilson Gouveia (+220)
Mike Moffatt: Though Maia and Sonnen are both hoping that the winner of their fight will be next in line for a title shot with Anderson Silva, the winner of this fight may be able to make a case for themselves as well if they are able to end their fight in spectacular fashion. Though Marquardt has already had his shot at Silva, and lost, maybe people still believe that he may have the best chance to de-throne ‘The Spider’. Though Gouveia has been known to hit hard, I don’t think he has what it takes to get by Marquardt. Nate’s first class training will pay off in this fight. Marquardt by TKO in Round Two
Zane Blackman: This has Fight of Night potential without a doubt. Marquardt might be the most consistent and feared 185lbs fighter besides Silva. Gouveia recently came down from 205 so the usual size advantage Marquardt has won’t be there which makes me want to think Gouveia has a great chance to win this. Both are good BJJ players, both hit hard, both have solid chins. This is tough but I am taking Marquardt by Submission in Round Three.
Mark Dorsey: This is one of the most interesting matchups on the card and one that is extremely hard to call. It will be interesting to see how American Top Team fighter Gouveia does in his third bout in the middleweight division. His two minute disposal of gatekeeper Jason MacDonald in Gouveia’s last bout was impressive but Marquardt will prove a much more challenging obstacle. Marquardt is a stud on the ground and showed much improved stand-up during his last TKO win over Martin Kampmann. Whoever wins this fight could be in line for a shot at Anderson Silva’s belt. I expect to see Marquardt squeak out a decision victory in a very closely matched affair. Marquardt by Decision
Zak Woods: Both of these fighters may see a title shot if they come away with a victory. Also they both have almost flawless careers in the UFC. If Marquardt hadn’t broken every rule against Thales Leites he would have won (I am not holding a loss to Anderson Silva against Nate), and a sudden turn of events did Gouveia in against Goran Reljic. In a fight like this I will put my faith in the fighter who has the guidance of the best tactician in MMA with the presence of Greg Jackson. That is why I am picking Nate Marquardt by Decision.
Steve Barry: I agree with Mike here, I don’t think Gouveia is one the same level as Marquardt, size advantage or not. Marquardt by Decision
Demian Maia (-300) vs Chael Sonnen(+220)
Mike Moffatt: Coming off a less than stellar performance against Paulo Filho in his last fight, Sonnen is looking to turn some heads when he steps into the Octagon to take on submission wizard Demian Maia. It appears that Sonnen might be the only one taking full credit for his last victory, as he has proclaimed that the winner of this fight should be regarded as the best middleweight fighter in the world. Maia seems to be just a tad more realistic when it comes to what is at stake in this fight, and I believe he is simply more focused on the task at hand. Defeating Sonnen will not be an easy task, but I believe that Maia will be able to improve his record to 10-0. Maia by Decision
Zane Blackman: Sonnen may have recently beated top ranked Paulo Filho, but it was obvious Filho was not his normal self. I really believe Maia will be the champ by the end of next year after Silva moves to 205 permanently. Expect this fight to play out like Maia vs Quarry. Maia gets takedown, Maia locks in choke. Maia by Submission in Round One.
Mark Dorsey: This fight features two of the most interesting and hyped prospects in the middleweight division. Demian Maia is one of the best grapplers in mma – if not the best – and is undefeated with a number of impressive submission wins in the UFC. If the fight goes to the ground, it won’t last long. Sonnen, making his return to the UFC after a good run with the WEC, is an experienced fighter with a lot of confidence going into this fight. However, unless he can stuff Maia’s takedown attempts and test Maia’s untested chin with his fists, Maia will earn a first round submission as he continues his climb up the middleweight contender ladder. Maia by Submission in Round One
Zak Woods: Chael Sonnen’s delusional statements regarding his prowess over Anderson Silva not withstanding, Sonnen is a solid middleweight fighter. But considering he struggled against Paulo Filho’s jiu-jitsu (before Filho forgot he was a fighter) there is no way he will be able to hand Demian Maia. Sonnen will appear to be winning this fight early only to be submitted later on by Maia. Maia by Submission in Round Two.
Steve Barry: After watching the abomination of a fight that was Filho-Sonnen II, I said to myself, “Self, I never want to watch Chael Sonnen fight again.” Probably a little harsh at the time, but I hate to watch fighters play it safe, and Sonnen wrote the book on how exactly that’s done against Filho. Maia is just of a submission threat as Filho, if not more, and I’m afraid Sonnen is going to follow a similar gameplan. Maia will be a lot more aggressive though, and eventually catch Sonnen in a sub. Maia by Submission in Round Two
Josh Koscheck (-500) vs Paulo Thiago (+350)
Mike Moffatt: UFC newcomer Paulo Thiago is sure to be in tough when he takes on rising welterweight Josh Koscheck. Koscheck has seen lots of action lately, as he has requested, and though he lost of Thiago Alves, I do not believe that loss dropped in too far down the welterweight ladder. Look for Koscheck to utilize his superb wrestling to control Thiago and grind out another victory. Koscheck via Decision
Zane Blackman: Koscheck has been fighting nothing but top contenders recently so he knows what its like to fight the best in the world. Thiago has fought only in Brazil against guys Koscheck would destroy. Nothing too confusing about this one, Koscheck by KO in Round One.
Mark Dorsey: Koscheck needs a big win in this fight to prove that he is still a top contender, after recent losses to welterweight top dog’s Georges St. Pierre and Thiago Alves. Koscheck’s vicious KO win over Yoshiyuki Yoshida certainly should have made the rest of the division take notice of the increased power in his strikes. Koscheck, who started out as a one-dimensional wrestler, has worked hard to improve his game and earn more fans. If he keeps up this same pace of growth he will continue to be a top ten – arguably top five – fighter. Thiago, making his UFC debut, seems like a sacrificial lamb to get Koscheck back on the title track. Thiago has some impressive grappling skills but the more experienced Koscheck will overwhelm him early. It certainly seems the UFC agrees since they only signed Thiago to a rare one-fight contract. Koscheck by TKO in Round Two.
Zak Woods: Paulo Thiago is perfect with a 10-0 record, but he couldn’t have drawn a worse opponent for his UFC debut. Josh Koscheck is one of the best fighters in the welterweight division. Seven of Thiago’s victories have come via submission, so look for Koscheck to keep it standing. I don’t think we will get a repeat of the Yoshida knockout, that was an anomaly, but Koscheck will pound out a unanimous decision. Koscheck by Decision
Steve Barry: Who is Paulo Thiago? Koscheck by TKO in Round One
Terry Etim (-260) Brian Cobb (+200)
Mike Moffatt: Both of the fighters’ wins have come mainly by submission and this is a fight that should take place mostly on the ground. Though I don’t think that the fight will end right away, I don’t think we will need the judges for this one. Etim by Submission in Round Two
Zane Blackman: Cobb via Decision
Mark Dorsey: Riding a nine-fight win streak outside the UFC, Cobb has shown the ability to submit his opponents early. The reigning Palace Fighting Championship lightweight titleholder, Cobb has been known as an underdog throughout his career and his fight against Etim is no different. Etim, a four fight UFC veteran, holds impressive wins over Sam Stout and Matt Grice. His only UFC losses have come to highly respected lightweights Rich Clementi and Gleison Tibau. This is a match up of two fighters well versed in submissions but I’ll give this one to Etim based on his UFC experience. My guess is that the UFC thinks Etim can handle Cobb too, since Etim is a top English prospect that I expect the UFC to coddle for a few more fights. Etim by Decision
Zak Woods: Etim’s two losses came to Gleison Tibau and Rich Clementi, two solid lightweights, Cobb is making his UFC debut. I usually pick U.S. fighters over U.K. fighters but I think Etim will rebound with a unanimous victory. Etim by Decision
Steve Barry: Etim by Decision
Junior Dos Santos (-350) vs Stefan Struve (+250)
Mike Moffatt: After a brilliant knockout of Werdum that sent him straight out of the UFC, Dos Santos looks to continue his winning ways against Stefan Struve. I don’t think it will be as easy for Dos Santos this time, though his opponent is not as high caliber, but he should be able to knock off Struve as the fight wears on. Dos Santos by KO in Round Two
Zane Blackman: J. Dos Santos made Werdum look like an amateur. Expect the same against 6′8 lanky Struve. Dos Santos by KO in Round One.
Mark Dorsey: Junior dos Santos burst onto the UFC scene in his debut last year against top ten heavyweight Fabricio Werdum. Dos Santos, who trains with one of the sports top training teams in Team Nogueira, scored a devastating early knockout that opened a lot of eyes to this promising young prospect. 18-fight Danish veteran Struve is making his UFC debut after an impressive run of submission victories in other organizations. A lanky 6’11, Struve poses an interesting stylistic matchup against any heavyweight, especially considering dos Santos only loss came by submission. However, if dos Santos continues to improve his ground game with Nogueira, expect him to keep the fight standing and land a big shot that knocks Struve out in the first round. Dos Santos by KO in Round One
Zak Woods: The UFC will not risk their newfound commodity in dos Santos (due to his KO victory over Fabricio Werdum). Santos by TKO
Steve Barry: I’m a little confused why Dos Santos got thrown in the prelims of a UK card no less following his huge upset knockout victory over Werdum. I’m betting he’s pissed and takes it out on Struve. Dos Santos by TKO in Round Two
Neil Grove (-110) vs Mike Ciesnolevicz (-120)
Mike Moffatt: Hard hitting Neil Grove should try to keep this fight on the feet against the well rounded Mike Cesnolevicz if he expects to walk out of the Octagon with his hand raised. This should be a close match-up, but I expect Grove to be able to catch Ciesnolevicz and put him to sleep. Grove by TKO in Round Three
Zane Blackman: Grove by TKO in Round One
Mark Dorsey: Miletich trained fighter Mike Ciesnolevicz, who replaces Justin McCully in this bout, made his reputation in the IFL as a tough all-around fighter. However, at 6’1, 230 pounds, Ciesnolevicz is going to face a significant size disadvantage in the UFC’s heavyweight division. This is especially true against 6’6, 264 pound giant, Grove. At 38 years old, Grove surprisingly doesn’t have much experience and doesn’t have much time to make his mark in the division. Fighting out of London, England, Grove will have the crowd on his side. Look to see Grove come out aggressive and score a second round TKO over the outsized Ciesnolevicz. Grove by TKO in Round Two
Zak Woods: Ciesnolevicz by Decision
Steve Barry: Ciesnolevicz by Decision
Per Eklund (-170) vs Evan Dunham (+140)
Mike Moffatt: Dunham puts his undefeated record on the line against Sweden’s own Per Eklund on Saturday night. Though Dunham does possess some impressive submission skills, I think Eklund might be too much for him. Eklund by Submission in Round One
Zane Blackman: Eklund by Decision
Mark Dorsey: This is a match against two promising young grappling prospects. Dunham, an Xtreme Couture product, has looked impressive during his undefeated first seven professional fights. However, Dunham faces an extremely tough test in Eklund, who was once considered one of Europe’s best lightweights. Eklund has tons of international experience and is 1-1 in the UFC, with his last fight being a win via rear naked choke against Samy Schiavo. I don’t see Eklund pulling off a submission on the game Dunham but I do see him winning a convincing decision with positional dominance. Eklund by Decision
Zak Woods: Got to go with the Swede in this fight. Eklund by Submission
Steve Barry: Eklund by Decision
Paul Kelly (-350) vs Troy Mandaloniz (+250)
Mike Moffatt: Coming off a disappointing loss, Kelly will look to rebound against Mandoloniz, who has been out of action for quite some time. Expect the rust to show in Mandoloniz’s game, and for Kelly to benefit from it as the fight moves into its latter stages. Paul Kelly by TKO in Round Two
Zane Blackman: Paul Kelly by TKO in Round Two
Mark Dorsey: Another top English prospect, Paul Kelly is a tough scrapper who looked good in his win over Paul Taylor in his first UFC fight before succumbing to Marcus Davis at UFC 89. Kelly is training with one of the top teams at the Wolfslair MMA Academy and sports both striking and submission skills, though strength and pure grit are probably his greatest advantages. Mandaloniz, a childhood friend of BJ Penn, had only a 2-1 record before being chosen to compete on the Ultimate Fighter 6 reality show. Mandaloniz has good power in his hands, evident in his victories over Paul Georgieff and Richie Hightower, but don’t expect Mandaloniz to knock out the tough Kelly. Training with BJ Penn, who has always had suspect cardio, I expect to see a close fight early that sees Kelly go on to dominant decision victory after Mandaloniz gasses. Kelly by Decision
Zak Woods: Kelly by KO
Steve Barry: Paul Kelly is going to knock Troy out. Kelly by KO in Round One
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