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UFC on Fox 8 Fight Card: The Smart Bets

UFC on Fox 8 Fight Card: The Smart Bets

It’s been a hefty while since the last time there have been live UFC fights, but that break will come to an end with an exciting card free on FOX. This will be UFC on FOX 8 in Seattle, and will feature a flyweight title bout as its headliner. Also on the card is a high-priority bout in the welterweight division could arguably sprout the next number-one contender. This card has a lot of promising bouts due for excitement, so when Saturday night comes, be ready! Before I dive into the actual fights and analysis, let’s take a look at what Vegas has to say about the card as we review the betting odds, and then take look at what some smart bets would be.

Betting Odds (from fantasy betting site MMAPlayground)


John Moraga +760

Demetrious Johnson -900


Jake Ellenberger +150

Rory MacDonald -170


Jorge Masvidal -105

Mike Chiesa -120


Mac Danzig +100

Melvin Guillard -110


Germaine de Randamie +400

Julie Kedzie -600


Trevor Smith +640

Ed Herman -720


Justin Salas +105

Aaron Riley -115


Yaotzin Meza +105

John Albert -115


Jessica Andrade +560

Liz Carmouche -600


Bobby Voelker +850

Robbie Lawler -900


Tim Means +185

Danny Castillo -200


Yves Edwards -100

Daron Cruickshank -125 


Smart Bets 

John Albert over Yaotzin Meza at -115

This isn’t a very profitable pick, but in my eyes, it’s a “sure-lock”. After taking one look at Yaotzin Meza in his UFC debut, you can easily make the assumption that he is a grappler with very poor striking, but also a poor physique – he kind of reminded me of Paulo Thiago. John Albert on the other hand is a decent fighter, but has had a bit of bad luck in the UFC. Currently, he’s on a 3-fight skid which means the UFC is trying very hard to keep him around as most prelim fighters don’t return after going 3-fight skid, sometimes 2 losses in a row is all it takes for them to get the axe. That alone makes me sold that Albert will win this, and when you break it down and look at things like physique, skill-set, etc. it’s very clear that Albert will be the superior fighter.

Jorge Masvidal over Michael Chiesa at -105

Both of these guys are doing pretty well so far in the UFC; Masvidal scored a UD win in his debut over Tim Means, while Chiesa is 2-0 with submissions over both of his opponents. This fight, based on odds, is really just a toss-up. Do you believe in Masvidal’s ability to keep the fight standing and out-strike Chiesa, or do you believe Chiesa will do what he has to do in order to get the fight on the ground in his territory? To me, I’m going to side with Masvidal because of one thing: experience. Masvidal has always been known to be a good striker, which means nearly every one of his opponents goes in there to try and take him down. After some decent experience in Strikeforce (including a fight with Gilbert Melendez where they fought all 5 rounds), Masvidal will be prepared for whatever Chiesa has up his sleeve.

Jake Ellenberger over Rory MacDonald at +150

Wow, this is about as big of a steal as you can get. Honestly, I figured this fight would be dead even in odds, or Ellenberger would even reign supreme by atleast 50, but I never thought MacDonald would have as big of an edge as he does – I guess hype really does count for something. No matter how many times you break this fight down, I guarantee you’re going to still be stumped over who to pick. Both of these guys have pretty much an equal amount of advantages and disadvantages against eachother the easiest thing is to just sit back and let them duke it out. However, the one reason why I pick over Ellenberger is because of his power. I think it’s unanimously agreed among the fans that Ellenberger has the power edge over MacDonald, despite maybe not being as technical. But that power edge gives Ellenberger the window of ending the fight with one shot, while MacDonald will most likely need look to steal a decision, or drag the fight into the 3rd round. Ellenberger is a 1st round king, and that makes me favor him over MacDonald.

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