It was guaranteed to happen. Someone would come along and refute Affliction’s claim of +100,000 pay-per-view buys. Unfortunately for Affliction, this person happens to be one of the industry’s most reliable journalists, Dave Meltzer. In Meltzer’s latest addition of The Wrestling Observer, he states that independent sources are predicting 50,000 to 85,000 buys for “Banned.”
As far as the numbers went, the big number everyone is looking for is the Affliction PPV number. Based on independent estimates we’ve heard, the number has been estimated at between 50,000 and 85,000 buys. Atencio claimed the number as being higher, saying it topped 100,000, although at press time, any numbers could only be considered rough estimates. Atencio told us that since UFC doesn’t release numbers, he’s not going to either (I know, after saying it was more than 100,000). Keep in mind that Pride claimed 150,000 buys for its first U.S. PPV in 2006, and the real number ended up being 40,000 (we know that because Nevada taxes on PPV revenue so you can get a real number; California does not so getting real numbers will be more difficult).
So was Tom Atencio lying when he said the numbers would easily surpass 100,000, or are the independent estimates just off? Who knows, but one way or another the real number is bound to come out eventually, which makes me question why Affliction doesn’t just release the numbers. I was inclined to believe Atencio for the sole fact that he would have to be pretty naive and/or stupid to lie about it and not think the real number would get out somehow. Might as well tell the truth, because if you don’t, it’s guaranteed to come back and haunt you.
Even if the numbers come back in the range Meltzer is reporting, that doesn’t necessarily mean the end for Affliction though. They’re obviously very committed to a second show, and with the cat out of the bag about Fedor and Arlovski’s vintage performance, the Fedor vs. Arlovski fight should draw better than Fedor vs Sylvia did. Affliction has the momentum they need, and if they play their cards right, they do have a chance to be successful in the long-run.
Even Zuffa lost $44 million before they started to turn it around. Was it under different circumstances and at a different time? Yes, but my point is few businesses are profitable right out of the gate. More often than not, you have to spend money before you start making it back and turning a profit. As long as Affliction sees the red numbers shrinking from event to event, I would imagine they will stick it out.
I also wanted to pass along a few other tidbits about Affliction’s second show. DreamFighters.com claims this is coming from Affliction Entertainment COO, Michael Cohen. My comments in italics.
- Affliction will continue using a band for entertainment and intermission. Band is not yet set. Maybe you had to be there.
- Fight card has been already set. That was quick.
- Afflicition 3, will be on the east coast. Sounds like New Jersey.
- Affliction has signed a great number of new fighters to be added to the Afflcition roster. “Great number?” Sounds like Cohen might be getting ahead of himself again.
The latest Affliction II: Fedor vs Arlovski fight card and event info can be found in our fight cards section.