Another mid-week UFC card is slated for this Wednesday as the UFC touches down in Barueri, Brazil for UFC Fight Night 29. Headlined by a duo of welterweight action between Demian Maia vs. Jake Shields, and Erick Silva vs. Dong Hyun Kim, this card features many great match-ups that are sure to get the crowd on their feet. With great match-ups comes great odds, and this week, the odds seem to be ever in our favor (Hunger Games reference). Let’s take a look at some smart bets that I believe to be too good to go unnoticed.

Betting Odds (From fantasy betting website,


Jake Shields +380

Demian Maia -420


Dong-Hyun Kim +105

Erick Silva -115


Matt Hamill +290

Thiago Silva -315


Joey Beltran +160

Fabio Maldonado -170


Raphael Assuncao +160

TJ Dillashaw -170


Mike Pierce -100

Rousimar Palhares -130


Igor Araujo +560

Ildemar Alcantara -600


David Mitchell +140

Yan Cabral -150


Chris Cariaso -105

Iliarde Santos -120


Garett Whiteley +325

Allan Patrick -360


Smart Bets:

Yan Cabral over David Mitchell at -150

This bout is between two high-level grapplers, but one has clearly shown that he is far superior, and that is Yan Cabral. Cabral’s amazing resume speaks for itself as he has won all 10 of his fights by submission, including the legendary Kazushi Sakuraba. While Mitchell has more UFC experience, Cabral is no stranger to a strong spot-light, and even less of a stranger to stiff competition. Expect Cabral to make a big statement as the Nova Uniao fighter appears destined to win.

Raphael Assuncao over TJ Dillashaw at +160

A bit risky, I know, especially considering the amazing streak that Dillashaw is on. However, Assuncao matches up against him very well stylistically, and poses as a huge threat in a number of areas. The biggest gamble here isn’t really about Dillashaw losing or not, but it’s the gamble that Team Alpha Male will suffer its first UFC defeat this year. It’s nearly unheard of to see fight camps in such an elite environment go undefeated, and I don’t this is any exception. Alpha Male will lose, and Assuncao is the one to do it. He has too much experience, and is simply too well-rounded with a strong specialty on the ground. That, and Alpha Male fighters have proven to be highly susceptible to Brazilians in the past.

Fabio Maldonado over Joey Beltran at -170

In a battle between two sluggers, this fight is going to come down to who has the better technique. Even at -170 odds, Maldonado can still be a profitable pick considering his far superior boxing technique, and overall feel of the game. Beltran has appeared sloppy, and has a bad habit of throwing caution out the window. Against Fabio Maldonado, that’s a suicide wish.